A simple blood test will predict liver cancer 10 years before diagnosis

Scientists from the Karolinska Institute (Sweden) have presented a new diagnostic method that can predict the risk of severe liver diseases, such as cirrhosis or cancer, 10 years before they are likely to occur using a routine blood test.

The development is called CORE and is based on five parameters: the patient's age, sex and the levels of three liver enzymes - AST (aspartate aminotransferase), ALT (alanine aminotransferase) and GGT (gamma-glutamyltransferase). All of these parameters are usually recorded during routine physical examinations.

"Liver diseases are becoming increasingly common, and if diagnosed too late, the prognosis is extremely unfavourable," explains Rikard Strandberg, one of the authors of the method. "Our test allows us to determine in advance who is at risk using simple and affordable laboratory indicators."

The study, published in The BMJ, was based on data from more than 480,000 Stockholm residents who underwent health checks between 1985 and 1996. During the 30 years of follow-up, about 1.5 per cent of the participants experienced serious liver disease - cirrhosis, oncology or the need for an organ transplant.

The CORE algorithm predicted with high accuracy (88%) which of the participants would develop severe disease, which is significantly more efficient than the previously recommended FIB-4 method.

One of the developers' goals was to create a tool suitable for use in primary care, where patients first go. An online calculator is already available and can be used by doctors and nurses to assess risk.

"This is an important step towards mass screening of liver disease at an early stage," notes Hannes Hagström, project leader, professor and gastroenterologist at Karolinska University. "There are already drugs on the horizon that can help people at high risk. Perhaps they will soon be available in Sweden as well."

To confirm reliability, the methodology was tested on independent samples in Finland and the UK - and showed similarly high accuracy.

However, the researchers emphasise that the CORE model needs to be further tested on high-risk patients, such as those with obesity or type 2 diabetes. It is also important to integrate the algorithm into existing electronic medical record systems for routine clinical use.

The emergence of accurate, easy-to-use and massively accessible methods for early detection of dangerous liver diseases could be an important step in the fight against one of the most silent and late-diagnosed pathologies. CORE could become an important tool to save the lives and health of thousands of patients.